Wiscosnin Truth Project - Dems Play it Safe with Lassa in WI-7
Dems Play it Safe with Lassa in WI-7
May 11, 2010 by Flavius Valerius Constantinus
I’ve been wanting to post about the retirement of Congressman Dave Obey (WI-7) since the moment it happened but, alas, I just haven’t had the time. Not to mention my typical news-to-blog reaction time of 5-7 days… and that’s being generous.
Today, State Senator Julie Lassa officially entered the race for Wisconsin’s 7th Congressional District. Her candidacy comes less than a week removed from Obey’s announcement – and reportedly with the blessing of Obey himself.
Without a doubt, Lassa, a former Obey staffer, entered the race only after receiving the go-ahead from her old boss. Further, her emergence is as the Team Obey candidate – meaning that the field will be cleared for her in the event that any other uppity Democrat gets any ideas about serving the people of the 7th (i.e., Obey will threaten to personally destroy the career and future of said uppity Democrat).
Lassa’s candidacy comes down to one single consideration: redistricting.
Let me start by saying that I believe Lassa is a substandard candidate for the Democrats. She is an absolutely uninspiring career staffer-turned-politician with absolutely no private sector experience. She lacks charisma and any real understanding of the real world.
While I understood the political calculations behind her anointing, I was still somewhat surprised by it. Simply put, Democrats are not giving their party the best chance at retaining the 7th – and maybe that’s by design.
The Lassa pick is less about retaining the 7th than it is about a cold-blooded team political calculation. You see, Obey’s retirement could have set off a wicked domino effect of vacancies in legislative seats in the Senate – and the Assembly. Of the four most candidates that I consider most credible – Lassa, State Senator Russ Decker, State Senator Pat Kreitlow and State Assemblywoman Donna Seidel – only Lassa is not up for re-election in 2010. In what looks like a GOP wave year, an open Decker or Kreitlow seat would be almost certain to go Republican (for reasons I’m not going to get into here). Seidel’s seat is more secure for Democrats, but it is not a no-brainer. What’s more, were someone like Kristin Dexter or Seidel to step up and run for Senate, their Assembly seats come heavily into play.
With redistricting coming in 2011, Obey, long a major player in the drawing of Wisconsin’s legislative and congressional districts, is keenly aware of the importance of this process. As such, he knows full well that losing the Decker or Kreitlow seats guarantees Republicans a Senate majority and a seat at the redistricting table – which is not yet as certain as many in the GOP would like to think.
Picking Lassa obviously minimizes all of this potential damage even though, if she is victorious, her seat would be up for grabs in a 2011 special (it went a little over 47% for Bush in 2004).
But then there are individual political considerations as well. For Lassa, it’s an easy decision. She loses virtually nothing by running. If she loses, she retreats comfortably to her safe Senate seat, albeit in shame at losing a 40-year Democratic seat. But, at 39 years of age, she’s got plenty of time for a comeback in a better year.
For Decker and Kreitlow, it’s a little more complicated. I would guess that both had to be sold on the idea of NOT running. You have to feel for these guys – it’s the opportunity of a lifetime and they had to pass it up. But is it really that bad? After all, Lassa might lose – and the door would be open for them in 2012, which surely will be a better year for Dems with Obama solidly winning reelection at the top of the ballot. Obey’s direct quote to them must have been something like, “Look Russ/Pat… I understand you want to do this real, real bad. But look at the environment – it’s the worst I’ve seen – maybe even worse than ’94. Do you really want this race right now? Wouldn’t it be better if you waited two years, let Lassa be the cannon fodder in the wave year, then you ride in and be the hero in 2012?” Seriously.
Obey’s conversation with Decker had to be difficult. Surely Decker’s been waiting for this moment his entire political life and has for years been considered Obey’s heir apparent. But he has to know how hard it will be to run in 2010 from the position of Democratic Senate Majority Leader, and I would surmise that Obey showed him the polling data to back it up. In a rebellious year, Decker IS the establishment. Ask Bob Bennett how well THAT plays. Coupled with substantial personal baggage, Decker is probably not the best candidate for the Democrats, even though he is the type of politician who would flourish in Washington and be a remarkable congressman.
I also believe that Obey may have convinced Kreitlow that the 7th is probably not the right fit for him. The vast, vast majority of his Senate district lies in WI-3 (Ron Kind), including the demographic base of Eau Claire. I wonder if Obey told Kreitlow, “Be patient and wait for the 2011 district re-draw and see where you land – we can probably work something out to get you into the 3rd. Besides – most of your former TV viewers are down in that direction anyway – if they still remember you.”
Lassa has to be considered the favorite – even with her late start. It is unquestionably a Democratic seat even if the NRCC says it isn’t (I mean, John McCain got something like 32.5% in the City of Superior in 2008 – I know it’s only part of the seat, but that’s unbelievably awful). And Duffy has a major demographic disadvantage against Lassa, who occupies the major population center of the 7th near Wausau, while Duffy’s base is in statistically insignificant Ashland County.
Still, Duffy is an “A” level candidate and has as good of a shot as any Republican of pulling this off.
One renegade candidate may still emerge, however. Kevin Shibilski, a Northwoods businessman who once occupied Lassa’s Senate seat, has been making some noise about a candidacy. He probably would not be a threat to Lassa, but he could make a primary interesting and drain her resources. Recall that Shibilski ran, at one time, for Lieutenant Governor and had his candidacy scuttled by the Wisconsin Democratic establishment over a budget vote in which he sided with Republicans.
Way more could – and will – be written about this in future editions.
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